Archive & scorecard
Every weekly forecast, graded against the following Thursday's Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average.
1 live grade so far: 0 HIT, 0 CLOSE, 1 MISS.
We publish hit rate and average error only after 4 live grades. Our first live forecast (week of Oct 26) missed by 82 bps because it was built on a stale, incorrect baseline; we fixed the data pipeline and kept the miss on the record.
| Week | Forecast date | Forecast (30-yr) | Freddie Mac PMMS actual | Error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week of Nov 2, 2026 | 2026-10-30 | 7.28% | Pending Thursday | — | PENDING |
| Week of Oct 26, 2026 | 2026-10-26 | 6.42% | 7.24% (2026-10-29) | 82 bps | MISS |
Live grades only. Earlier illustrative back-tests were removed on Oct 30, 2026 because they did not use real Freddie Mac actuals. Download: scorecard.csv.
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