{
  "meta": {
    "generated": "2026-10-30T14:00:00Z",
    "week": "2026-W45",
    "week_label": "Week of Nov 2, 2026",
    "forecastDate": "2026-10-30",
    "target_pmms_date": "2026-11-05",
    "nextUpdate": "2026-11-05T17:00:00Z",
    "grade_deadline": "2026-11-05T22:00:00Z",
    "model_version": "v1-treasury-delta",
    "source": "RateScore",
    "disclaimer": "This is a forecast for informational purposes only. Not financial advice, not a rate quote, offer or lock. National averages differ from what an individual borrower is offered."
  },
  "forecast": {
    "30yr_fixed": {
      "rate": 7.28,
      "range_low": 7.13,
      "range_high": 7.43,
      "direction": "stable",
      "confidence": "low"
    },
    "15yr_fixed": {
      "rate": 6.64,
      "range_low": 6.49,
      "range_high": 6.79,
      "direction": "stable",
      "confidence": "low"
    }
  },
  "model": {
    "formula": "forecast = last Freddie Mac PMMS rate + (latest 10-yr Treasury close - average 10-yr close during the last PMMS survey window, Mon-Wed)",
    "last_pmms_date": "2026-10-29",
    "last_pmms_30yr": 7.24,
    "last_pmms_15yr": 6.6,
    "survey_window_10yr_avg": 5.013,
    "latest_10yr": 5.05,
    "latest_10yr_date": "2026-10-28",
    "delta_pct_pts": 0.037,
    "range_rule": "+/-0.15 percentage points",
    "note": "5/1 ARM not forecast: Freddie Mac PMMS stopped publishing a 5/1 ARM average in Nov 2022, so it cannot be graded."
  },
  "drivers": {
    "treasury_10yr": {
      "current": 5.05,
      "as_of": "2026-10-28",
      "series": "DGS10",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
      "outlook": "10-yr Treasury closed at 5.05% on 2026-10-28, vs a 5.01% average during the Oct 26-28 PMMS survey window."
    },
    "fed_funds": {
      "current_target": "3.75-4.00",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29",
      "series": "DFEDTARL/DFEDTARU",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU",
      "last_change": "2026-09-17 (raised 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%)",
      "last_meeting": "2026-10-27/28 (no change)",
      "next_meeting": "2026-12-08/09",
      "next_meeting_source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    },
    "employment": {
      "latest_jobs": 29000,
      "reference_month": "2026-09",
      "released": "2026-10-02",
      "series": "PAYEMS",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS",
      "assessment": "Nonfarm payrolls +29,000 in September 2026 (FRED PAYEMS, month-over-month)."
    },
    "inflation": {
      "cpi_yoy": 3.7,
      "reference_month": "2026-09",
      "released": "2026-10-14",
      "series": "CPIAUCSL",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
      "assessment": "CPI-U up 3.7% year over year in September 2026 (FRED CPIAUCSL, seasonally adjusted)."
    }
  },
  "narrative": "Freddie Mac's PMMS 30-year average fell to 7.24% on Oct 29, 2026, from 7.32% a week earlier and a 7.40% peak on Oct 8-15. The 15-year averaged 6.60%. Rates rose roughly 60 bps from early September as the 10-year Treasury climbed above 5% and the Fed raised its target to 3.75-4.00% in September (held Oct 28). With the 10-year at 5.05% (2026-10-28) versus 5.01% during the last survey window, our simple Treasury-delta model points to about 7.28% for the Nov 5 PMMS (range 7.13-7.43%). Confidence is low: this model is new and has one live grade, a MISS."
}